According to the India Today Mood of the Nation survey, if the polls were held in January, the BJP would win all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi. This raises a significant question: why does a state that has consistently voted for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Assembly elections give all its Lok Sabha seats to the BJP?
In the 2013 Delhi election, the AAP secured 28 out of 70 Assembly seats and formed a government in alliance with the Congress. However, their government did not last a full term. In the 2015 and 2020 elections, the AAP won 67 and 62 seats, respectively. Despite these victories, the BJP managed to win all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi in both the 2014 and 2019 elections.
Even with a Congress-AAP coalition, the India Today survey shows that the BJP would receive 57% of the vote share in Delhi. This raises the question of why two states with the same combination yield such different results.
One factor is the difference in voting patterns between Assembly and parliamentary elections. Across all states in India, there is a significant increase in favor of the BJP in Lok Sabha elections compared to Assembly elections.
In Delhi, there is an additional factor at play. While Muslim votes tend to favor the AAP in Assembly elections, they lean towards the Congress in Lok Sabha elections. This inconsistency is attributed to the Muslim vote swing in Delhi.
However, it is important to note that after the delimitation process in 2008, the composition of Delhi’s seats has changed. Experts argue that there is not a single Lok Sabha seat in Delhi that can be decided solely by voters from the minority community. Additionally, the Modi factor plays a crucial role in the consolidation of votes for the BJP in Delhi, as it does in other parts of the country.
Another reason for the BJP’s success in Lok Sabha polls could be that the people of Delhi still perceive the AAP as a regional party, despite its efforts to expand into other states.
In conclusion, there are multiple factors that contribute to the AAP’s victory in Assembly polls and the BJP’s success in Lok Sabha polls in Delhi. These factors would likely remain the same if the 2024 Lok Sabha polls were held in January, as indicated by the Mood of the Nation survey.
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